Brief analysis of the production and operation of refractory industry in the first half of 2015

I. The overall operation of the above scale industries nationwide
1 or 2011-2014 years of refractories production
In June 2015, the added value of above scale industries increased by 0.64% over the previous month. In 1-6, the added value of above scale industries increased by 6.3% over the same period last year.
The main business revenue is 51 trillion and 820 billion yuan, and the main business income margin is 5.49%.
From January to June, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above the national scale was 2.84 trillion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point from January to May.
At the end of June, the receivables of Industrial Enterprises above the scale of 10.80 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the same period of last year, and the inventory of finished products was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%.
Two. Production and operation of refractory industry in the first half of 2015
1. Production of refractory materials
In June, compared with the same caliber, the output of national refractory materials was 11 million 214 thousand and 600 tons, down 12.17% from the same period last year. Among them, 7.125 million tons of dense and stereotyped refractory products, 12.76% lower than the same period of the same period; 225.1 million tons of heat preservation and insulation refractory products, 14.84% lower than the same period of the same period; 3.869 million tons of unshaped refractory products, 10.91% lower than the same period of the same period.

2. Import and export of refractory raw materials
In 1-6 months, the total import and export trade of refractory raw materials was 1 billion 602 million US dollars, down 6.91% from the same period last year. Among them, the volume of export trade was US$1.526 billion, down 5.27% from the same period last year, and the volume of import trade was US$076 million, down 31.34% from the same period last year.
The total export of refractory raw materials in China was 2 million 582 thousand and 800 tons, down 7.19% from the same period last year. Among them, the export volume of refractory raw materials was 1.7285 million tons, down 5.93% from the same period of last year, and the export volume of refractory products was 8543 million tons, down 9.63% from the same period of last year.

3. Characteristics of production and export operation
(1) the yield of refractory materials has declined.
In 1~6 months, the output of national refractory materials decreased by 1 million 554 thousand and 400 tons compared with the same period last year, down 12.17% from the same period last year.
(2) average export prices of refractory raw materials continue to decline.
Among the main export varieties of refractory raw materials inquired by the Customs, the average export price of brown corundum and white corundum increased, and other main varieties decreased to varying degrees. In particular, the export volume of refractory clay and silicon carbide increased by 2.89% and 6.59% respectively in January and June, while the average export price decreased by 7.26% and 16.20%; the export volume of graphite, fused magnesia and sintered magnesia decreased by 13.32%, 13.19% and 12.39% respectively in January and June, while the average export price decreased by 4.44%, 2.30% and 3.29% respectively.
(3) The export volume of refractory products increased to varying degrees except alkaline products.
In 1~6 months, the export volume of refractory products decreased by 9.63% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export volume of Al-Si refractories and other refractories increased by 2.56% and 13.35% respectively, while that of alkaline products decreased by 21.30%.
The overall average export price of refractory products increased by 10.11%, mainly due to the increase of 41.58% and 12.03% respectively in the average export prices of aluminosilica products and other refractory products.
(4) in 1~6 months, the import volume of refractory products was 8 thousand and 400 tons, down 15.35% from the same period last year. Among them, the import of alkaline products was 0.35 million tons, an increase of 30.83%; the import of aluminium-silicon refractory products was 0.38 million tons, a decrease of 18.72%; the import of other refractory products was 0.11 million tons, a decrease of 56.73%.
The average import price of refractory products was 27.53% lower than that of the same period of last year. The main reason was that the average import price of alkaline products and aluminum-silicon refractory products decreased by 23.60% and 35.42% respectively. The average price of imports of other refractory products increased by 13.68% over the same period last year.
Three. Production and operation of main downstream industries
(1) operation of iron and steel industry
1. Production and operation of China's iron and steel industry
From January to June, China's crude steel output was 410 million tons, down 1.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 4.4 percentage points. Among them, the crude steel output of Steel Association member enterprises increased by 0.25% year-on-year, while that of non-member enterprises decreased by 6.56%. Steel output of 5.59 million tons, an increase of 2.05%, slowing 4.4 percentage points.

 

 

2. Production situation of the world steel industry
In 1~6 months, global (65 countries and regions) total crude steel output was 8.13 million tons, down 2% compared with the same period last year. Except for the 28 countries in the European Union and the Middle East, the growth rate is 0.5% and 2.9% respectively.

 

 

(two) production and operation of building materials industry
In 1-6 months, the national cement output was 10.77 million tons, down 5.3% from the same period last year, an increase of 3.6% over the same period last year.
Flat glass output of 398 million weight boxes, down 4.2% compared to the same period last year, an increase of 4.7%.
(three) production and operation of Nonferrous Metals Industry
From January to June, the output of 10 kinds of non-ferrous metals in China was 25.26 million tons, up 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.9 percentage points. The output of electrolytic aluminum was 15.61 million tons, up 11.7%, by 4.3 percentage points; copper was 3.78 million tons, up 9.4%, up 1.3 percentage points; lead production was 2.05 million tons, down 3.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year on year; zinc production was 3.07 million tons, up 12.8%, up 11.5 percentage points. Alumina production 28 million 220 thousand tons, an increase of 13.1%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points.
(four) operation characteristics of main downstream industries
1, except for ten kinds of non-ferrous metals output growth, others declined.
From January to June, the output of crude steel dropped 4.3 percentage points nationwide, cement dropped 8.9 percentage points, flat glass dropped 8.9 percentage points, and the growth rate of ten non-ferrous metals increased 3.9 percentage points year on year.
2, product prices show a downward trend.
In June, cement prices fell 11.9% year-on-year; in June, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures average price fell 9.8%; electrolytic aluminum, lead futures average price fell 2.4% and 4.4% year-on-year; zinc futures average price rose 8.8%.
The ex factory price of flat glass was 55.2 yuan / weight box, down 5.9 yuan / weight box, or 9.7%.
Steel prices continued to fall. In June, the domestic steel price composite index averaged 68.14 points, down 25.44 points year-on-year.
In 3 and 1-5 months, the profits of other industries decreased, except the profits of non-ferrous metals.
The profit of non-ferrous metals industry rose significantly from January to May. The profit of non-ferrous metals industry reached 63.2 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, and the profit margin of main business income was 2.92%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the profits of the mining industry dropped by 19.8% compared to the same period last year, and the smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 28.2%.
The iron and steel industry realized a profit of 35 billion yuan, a 36% decrease compared with the same period of the year, an increase of 26.8 percentage points; the profit margin of the main business income was only 1.16%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the same period of the year. Among them, the profits of the mining industry dropped by 46.6% compared to the same period last year, and the smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 11.5%. The total profit of large and medium-sized enterprises is only 1.64 billion yuan, and the loss of main business is 2.68 billion yuan. In fact, non-steel profits make up for the loss of main business.
The total profit of building materials industry was 128 billion yuan, down 9% compared with the same period last year. Sales profit margin 5.7%; income 2 trillion and 200 billion.
Four, the operation of the refractory industry and the problems needing attention.
Influenced by the downward demand of refractory market, the serious excess of production capacity, and the difficulty of payment recovery, the production and operation of refractory industry has been the most difficult situation since 2000. It is understood that the proportion of refractory production enterprises in the key production areas of the country is increasing. The industry generally presents a passive situation of declining production, decreasing profits and receivable payments.
1, the operation of key enterprises.
In the first half of the year, the output of refractories of 61 key refractory enterprises was 53.126 million tons, a decrease of 6.6%; sales revenue was 15.583 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.47%; profits were 746 million yuan, a decrease of 2.25%; sales profit margin was 4.7%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. By the end of June, the receivables amounted to 13.683 billion yuan, an increase of 9.18% over the same period last year, an increase of 627 million yuan, or 6.04% over the end of 2014.
Of the 61 key enterprises, 8 were losing money, with a loss of 69.63 million yuan, a decrease of 37.61 million yuan, or 35.07 percent. 53 profitable enterprises, with a profit of 676 million yuan, increased by 20 million 410 thousand yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.05% over the same period last year. Although the key backbone enterprises are obviously superior to the general enterprises in operating efficiency and risk resistance, the prevailing high receivables are worrying.
2, several problems that the production enterprises should pay attention to.
(1) capital problem is the first issue affecting the safety of enterprises.
Affected by the serious overcapacity, the operating situation of the main downstream industries with high cost and low profit is difficult to change in the short term. Especially the serious shortage of funds has caused the capital turnover period of refractory enterprises to be greatly prolonged, and it is difficult to recover the old arrears, which has laid a huge hidden danger to the operation safety of refractory enterprises.
Among the 61 key refractory enterprises, 22 enterprises'receivables at the end of June exceeded 50% of the annual sales revenue of the previous year. Some enterprises' receivables are even close to or exceed the total sales revenue of the previous year, and are still growing continuously. Therefore, refractory production enterprises should conscientiously enhance the awareness of capital risk, always guard against business risks, prevent the breakage of capital chain. From the current business situation of enterprises, it is more urgent to collect payment than to borrow money from banks. It is more important to do a good job in market integration and improve the quality of operation than to expand the market scale of enterprises.
(2) the market demand for refractories is on a downward trend, and manufacturers should rationally adapt to the new normal.
In the first half of this year, except for non-ferrous metals, the output of steel, cement and flat glass decreased by 1.3%, 5.3% and 4.2% respectively. Especially due to the rapid reduction of new construction projects, production consumption and demand for refractories for infrastructure projects are expected to continue to decline.
In the first half of this year, the output of refractory products decreased by 12.17% compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the obvious decrease in demand for refractory products for infrastructure projects. In terms of variety, silica brick, high alumina brick and clay brick with large demand for refractory products for infrastructure projects have fallen considerably.

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